12th ICCRTS

We are interested in discovering if “Influence” is measurable. We define influence as the power of producing effects using either kinetic and non-kinetic actions, or a combination of both. This paper will focus on the use of non-kinetic means to achieve the effect of encouraging non-combatants to vacate a potential hostile environment. By considering influence as a key element of effects based planning, the authors believe that it should be possible to measure the results of influence based operations. As a strategic framework, this paper will introduce the notion of “influence packages” to arrive at a desired set of metrics. We hypothesize that an influence network, consisting of diverse nodal entities, each with a unique capacity to generate a specific type of influence, can be orchestrated in such a manner that “influence packages” can be quickly devised, implemented, and the effects measured. “The skillful leader subdues the enemy’s troops without any fighting”. Sun Tzu – The Art of War Introduction These words written by Sun Tzu several millennia before us, show that the warfighter has always sought to influence the enemy and the enemy’s allies to achieve victory in the least costly manner. The use of influence as a strategic tool to improve one’s position against a superior adversary has been clearly demonstrated as an important tool in determining the outcome of modern armed conflict. In the case of Viet Nam, influence was used as a tool to assist a relatively small military force (North Viet Nam) in overcoming a significant military disadvantage against superior American forces. General Giap used influence as a key process tool in his removal of American occupiers from Indo-China. Giap successfully orchestrated world public opinion and U.S. public opinion to remove American forces from Viet Nam. Also, by targeting the U.S. with a successful influence campaign, Congress was persuaded to defund the South Vietnamese Army, granting Giap the final victory. These achievements by General Giap, accomplished in part by his use of a strategic framework of cumulative influence, required a multi-faceted approach to influence management through the application of simple and clear processes. The process was to clearly state your strategic goals, create a plan, adapt the plan constantly and smartly, combine armed and unarmed influence, design and implement tactical level influence campaigns in the form of influence packages (authors term) with specific goals whose effects will cumulatively sum towards the strategic goal of the removal of US forces from Viet Nam. In a sense, General Giap should be considered the father of modern successful influence package based warfare, although much of his planning was based upon Maoist theory. More recently, Hezbollah successfully used influence to arouse world opinion against Israel for causing civilian casualties. World opinion was thus used to impose restrictions on the Israeli Army which clearly aided in Hezbollah’s survival and in effect achieved a Maoist strategic stalemate against the Israeli military. The authors believe that influence should be considered cumulative over the course of the conflict and that its results can be measured in rather simple terms. The authors also believe that the cumulative nature of effective influence is best managed through the application of “Influence Packages”. Influence packages define the influence strategy, the influence campaign plan, influence campaign command and control, influence types and tools appropriate for each type, and the success criteria and metrics required for a successful influence campaign. Non kinetic influence packages should exploit the current state of the art in communications, internet and marketing techniques in an orderly, orchestrated and coherent manner in order to achieve its impact upon enemy forces, enemy home populations, and the enemy’s allies. This paper continues with a few basic definitions so that the reader may understand the authors’ intent, followed by a hypothetical scenario used to demonstrate how simple influence based goals and metrics can be identified and used to perform effects based management command and control of influence operations. The particular example we